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thomas hoskyns leonard writer, poet - and mathematical statistician may 2015: please also visit thomas hoskyns leonard blog and tom leonard's mental health discussions edinburgh facebook page click below for: a personal history of bayesian statistics, a history of my academic subject from the 18th century to the current day, written with the help of my bayesian friends around the world, and my fellow creative writers and poets in edinburgh. 8th january 2014: the first three chapters and part of the fourth chapter of my bayesian history have been accepted for publication by john wiley&son of chichester and new york for publication in their on-line library, and will instead appear there. please click on wiley interdisciplinary reviews to access these chapters. on 28th february 2014 wiley honoured my bayesian history by naming it their hot article of the week. on 16th may 2014 they published a featured interview of me. please click on statistics views to access. statslife for my online article about the history of bayesian statistics which was published by the royal statistical society. an anthology of scottish consciousness for a collection of youtube videos of poems and aesthetic pieces of prose by the leith walk rhymers and their invited guests. the edinburgh all-comers writers club, a convivial group which meets weekly to encourage creative writers and poets of all abilities . a devonian saga, several sample chapters of my latest novel , a murder and family ancestry mystery set during my teenage years in plymouth. my literary home page health warning and my ongoing public health campaign (the auntie nancy campaign) this month's correspondence about my health campaign stephen sacco's media reports for a pdf file containing numerous press reports concerning the harmful effects of psychiatric medications . psychiatric rights scotland (group leader andrew muir) my psychiatric home page concerning my mental health campaign news flashes for some topical announcements my family ancestry the life of a bayesian boy , my academic life story chapter 5 of bayesian boy for a discussion of the august 2013 isba-related debate about the axiomatic foundations of bayesian statistics , and a refutation of birnbaum's 1962 justification of the likelihood principle. the martyrdom of chen wen chen, taiwanese hero and statistician the dna evidence controversy my gay and lesbian section on the evils of bullying being dyspraxic by scott forster our edinburgh restaurant guide please see my favourite facebook quotations for some cryptic clues to some of the mysteries posed on this website. e-mail: [email protected] my favourite quotes by catherine of siena: "if you are what you should be, you will set the whole world on fire!" "proclaim the truth and do not be silent through fear." "every step of the way to heaven is heaven." i am a writer of fiction, and a mathematical and interdisciplinary statistician, and i was born in yealmpton, devonshire (the home of old mother hubbard) and live in broughton, edinburgh, scotland, where witches and wizards were once imprisoned in the tollbooth before they were burnt at the stake. i obtained my degrees from imperial college london (in 1970) and university college london (in 1971 and 1973), before embarking on an adventurous academic career in england , the united states, and finally scotland. i am a fellow of the royal statistical society and a co-founder, with arnold zellner, of the international society for bayesian analysis (isba). i also co-founded the department of statistics and morse degree at the university of warwick with robin reed and p.j. harrison. in december 2012, the isba board (fabrizio ruggeri president) elected me as one of the first ever isba fellows (to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the society) to honour me as one of the founders of isba, and for my outstanding contributions to statistics (i devised the name of the society in 1992). i am therefore now a fellow of the international society for bayesian analysis. thank you, fabrizio! in january 2014, i enrolled as a member of sisbayes (sonia petrone, president), the recently formed bayesian section of the italian statistical society. on 26th february 2014, i was elected to the committee of the edinburgh section of the royal statistical society. this is the best attended section of the society outside london and is very influential throughout scotland, it meets in the international centre for mathematical sciences on south college street. quite apart from my academic duties. i was an accredited expert witness in the states of wisconsin, minnesota, iowa and illinois, and i also enjoyed visiting santa barbara and san francisco. when i returned to britain, the paper chase and the ripples from above seemed to take over. tom leonard, arnold zellner and other bayesians attending the inaugural isba conference in the hotel nikko in san francisco in 1993. the four other bayesians are gordon kaufmann, wes johnson, carl morris and shanti gupta tom playing rev. thomas bayes returning from heaven valencia 6 cabaret 1998. the master of ceremonies tony o'hagan played ping pong with tom at ucl for further information about my academic career please google tom leonard bayesian and tom leonard statistician. please click here for a summary of my family ancestry . i include a resolution of a historical controversy surrounding the 1892 murders in peter tavy, which involves my presumed great grandfather philip hoskyns bryant (see also tavistock's yesterday's , by gerry woodcock, vol.8, ch.9). the resolution is detailed in my father cecil leonard's 1979 account. for my recently updated and illustrated academic story, please click here to read the life of a bayesian boy. a number of pivotal issues are raised which relate to the philosophy and history of bayesian statistics. click here for tony o' hagan interviews dennis lindley for a recent discussion of the bayesian paradigm by my former ph.d. supervisor dennis lindley. my own philosophy is rather more pragmatic and i've always had very serious reservations concerning the relevance of the (paradoxical) savage and (relatively tautologous when appropriately strengthened) de finetti axiom systems. see fishburn (statistical science 1986) for a discussion of the very complicated strong additivity and monotone continuity assumptions that need to be included in the de finetti axioms to imply countable additivity of your subjective probability distribution. please click on ch.5 bayesian boy for further discussion and developments. on 5th september 2013, i felt honored, twelve years after my retirement from academia, to receive an invitation from john wiley & son to write a short history of bayesian statistics, for electronic publication. this was after the american editors had read my somewhat controversial academic life story on this website, including the new material in chapter 5. i will be preparing this relatively uncontroversial article during the next three months, while seeking advice and suggestions from fellow bayesians around the world. it will be written from an american non-religious bayesian perspective, and i hope that it doesn't irritate the british too much. for the patient being diagnosed, let d denote the presence of a particular disease, and s denote the presence of a particular symptom. furthermore, let p denote probability or chance. then bayes theorem tells us that p(d given s)= p(s given d) p(d)/p(s) where p(s) = p(s given d) p(d) + p(s given not d) p(not d) for example, if p(d)=prior probability of disease=0.1, p(s given d)= 0.99 and p(s given not d)=0.2, then p(s)=0.99x0.1 + 0.2x0.9 = 0.279 p(d given s)=posterior probability of disease = 0.99x0.1/0.279= 0.355 morever, p(d given not s)= p(not s given d) p(d)/p(not s)=0.01x0.1/.721 = 0.0014 these formulae are essential tools in medical diagnosis. see the book bayesian methods: an analysis for statisticians and interdisciplinary research workers by t

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